Every day Ahmet buys a scratch-off lottery ticket with a $40\%$ chance of winning some prize. He noticed that whenever he wears his red shirt he usually wins. He decided to keep track of his winnings while wearing the shirt and found that he won $3$ out of $3$ times. Let's test the hypothesis that **Ahmet's chance of winning while wearing the shirt is $40\%$ as always** versus the alternative that the chance is somehow *greater*. **Assuming the hypothesis is correct, what is the probability of Ahmet winning $3$ times out of $3$? Round your answer, if necessary, to the nearest tenth of a percent.** $\quad$[[☃ input-number 1]] Let's agree that if the observed outcome has a probability *less* than $1\%$ under the tested hypothesis, we will reject the hypothesis. **What should we conclude regarding the hypothesis?** [[☃ radio 1]]